3.5 billion IoT cellular connections predicted for 2023
20 percent of global mobile data traffic will be on 5G networks in 2023
Cellular technology offers the
capabilities to handle different use cases’ service requirements by using
Quality of Service (QoS) mechanisms
Commercial rollouts of 5G
and larger than previously forecasted deployments of cellular IoT are focal
points in the latest edition of the Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) Mobility Report.
The forecast for cellular IoT connections has nearly doubled
since November 2017. It is now expected to reach an estimated 3.5 billion in 2023,
driven by ongoing large-scale deployments in China. New massive IoT cellular technologies such as
NB-IoT and Cat-M1 are fueling this growth, giving service providers opportunities to improve
efficiencies and enhance customer value.
Mobile operators have launched more than 60 cellular
IoT networks worldwide using these technologies over the same underlying LTE
network to support a diverse range of use cases. In North America, these cases are
centered on logistics and fleet management while in China it is smart cities
and smart agriculture.
Commercial launches of 5G
North America is expected to lead the 5G uptake. By end of 2023, close to 50 percent of
all mobile subscriptions in North America are forecast to be for 5G,
followed by North East Asia at 34 percent, and Western Europe at 21 percent.
Globally, major 5G deployments are expected from
forecasts over 1 billion 5G subscriptions for enhanced mobile broadband by
the end of 2023, accounting for around 12 percent of all mobile subscriptions.
Mobile data traffic is estimated to surge by eight times during the forecast period to reach
close to 107 exabytes (EB) per month – a figure that is equal to every mobile
subscriber in the world streaming full HD video for 10 hours. By 2023, more than 20 percent of mobile data traffic worldwide is expected to be
carried by 5G networks. This is 1.5 times more than the total 4G/3G/2G traffic
previous mobile access technologies, 5G is expected to be deployed first
in dense urban areas with enhanced mobile broadband and fixed
wireless access as the first commercial use cases. Other use cases will
come from industries such as automotive, manufacturing, utilities, and
Fredrik Jejdling, Executive Vice President and Head
of Business Area Networks, says: “2018 is the year 5G networks go commercial as
well as for large-scale deployments of cellular IoT. These technologies promise
new capabilities that will impact people’s lives and transform industries. This
change will only come about through the combined efforts of industry players
and regulators aligning on spectrum, standards and technology.”
First-generation, 5G data-only devices are expected
from the second half of 2018. The first commercial smartphones supporting 5G in
the mid-bands are expected early next year, while support for very high
spectrum bands is expected in early to mid-2019.
5G is also expected to empower use cases across
industries. The first module-based 5G devices, supporting ultra-low latency
communications for industrial process monitoring and control, are expected
Especially, in the smart manufacturing industry, evolving
to a higher level of automation will increasingly lead to a higher share of 5G
connected devices. Customized network connectivity is required to support secure
and reliable customized production. Cellular technology offers the capabilities
to handle different use cases’ service requirements by using Quality of Service
(QoS) mechanisms with mobility, security, availability and reliability.
The Ericsson Mobility Report also features articles on
network performance through the eyes of customers, smart manufacturing, machine
intelligence in network management, and the importance of securing the right
spectrum for 5G.